OPTIONSMART MORNING UPDATE: Sunday Edition

November 1st, 2009 at 12:15 pm

 

OPTIONSMART MORNING UPDATE: Sunday Edition

1. OUTLOOK: Investors turned cautious. Financials were the worst hit of the major sectors. The concerted selling effort brought about a spike in volatility. That sent the QQQQ's Implied Volatility, often dubbed the Fear Gauge, up 18%, which marks its sharpest single-session spike by percent this year and now stands at its highest level since July.The put-to-call ratio of 1.2 is indicative of positioning for downside.  The percentage of companies reporting upside surprises is at an all-time high of 80%, with just 6% meeting forecasts and 13% missing forecasts. Cisco due out after the close Wednesday. The week ahead should be better, but it may be muted as investors wait for Friday's big jobs report.

.QQQQ chart

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2. TRADING OPPORTUNITY:  n/a

3. OUR FREE QUARTERLY TRADING RECOMMENDATION AUTO-TRADABLE WITH PARTICIPATING BROKERAGES: to be published in January.
CURRENT OPEN POSITION: DIA Jan 95/98 debit call spread (bought @2.25 on 10/20/09, target 2.50)
MOST RECENT CLOSED TRADE:
 

4.  WISDOM NUGGETS: 

When you don’t have the fundamental knowledge about something and can’t estimate risks and rewards, you turn to your intuition and emotions. Hope, fear and greed are popular emotions but by no means can they be strategies. Decisions should never be based on emotions: positive emotions can strip you off the risk precautions, while negative emotions can trigger hesitation. The ‘big boys’ of the stock market can easily leverage your decision-making by spreading rumors and, for example, ‘shaking stocks off weak hands’: you get emotional and do exactly what they need you to do. Do you like being manipulated? Probably not. Then isn’t it better to have your own trading system, which is based on facts, not on emotions? 

Trading is a psychological game. Most people think they're playing against the market, but the truth is: the market doesn't care.  You're really playing against yourself, against your emotions that paint a simplified picture of the actual market. But the reality is that complicated situations cannot be resolved with simple intuitive decisions. 


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