OPTIONSMART MORNING UPDATE: Sunday Edition

October 18th, 2009 at 12:24 pm

 

OPTIONSMART MORNING UPDATE: Sunday Edition

1. OUTLOOK: Market players reacted negatively to the latest batch of earnings reports. IBM delivered better-than-expected earnings and even raised its earnings forecast for 2009. However, the company's top line was down from the previous year, indicating that demand hasn't fully rebounded. IBM lost 5%. Google also reported after the close of trading Thursday and beat estimates. Goggle rose 4%. Economic bellwether and industrial conglomerate General Electric brought in better-than-expected earnings of its own, though it saw continued pressure in its capital finance business and was hit with a 20% year-over-year drop in revenue. GE slipped 3%. Finally, the Dow Jones industrial average failed to hold above the 10,000 mark. Investors are willing to see some better economic news, in terms of employment, along with greater visibility from companies heading into 2010 to help propel stocks even higher.

QQQQ chart

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2. TRADING OPPORTUNITY: n/a

3. OUR FREE MONTHLY TRADING RECOMMENDATION AUTO-TRADABLE WITH PARTICIPATING BROKERAGES: to be published  in late October.
 

4. REAL PREDICTIVE ACCURACY OF A "HAMMER" CANDLESTICK

 Hammer candlesticks occur when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rebounds to close well above the intraday low. In a perfect hammer, this tail is twice the length of the body and the candlestick will have no upper shadow or wick. The longer the tail, the more significant the hammer is as a bullish indicator. Hammers form at  trend bottoms.


hammer



We have examined all 21,200 hammer candlestick occurences with all 2,215 optionable stocks in 1999 and found (see the chart below)  that:
an average bias is significant enough to bet on - 3% one day after
a bullish momentum (bias) fades away very quickly - roughly within a week



Hammer

This statistical evidence proves the possibility to profit from short-term stock price upswings. Options spreads  may be considered as a very good trading vehicle in terms risk and return.  That's why we use  options spreads in our recommendations. 

5. YOU COULD DOUBLE YOUR MONEY TWICE SINCE JANUARY 2009

Tap into QQQQ Enhanced Portfolio's remarkable win ratio - 
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